Jets 2023 schedule: Experts predict New York’s record

Over/under: 9.5

Mike Clay’s projection: 9.3

Prediction: Over 9.5 wins. This comes down to quarterback Aaron Rodgers and whether you believe last year was an aberration or the beginning of the end. I think the thumb injury was legitimate and he is closer to his recent MVP form. Thus, it is a giant upgrade at the most important position and the Jets should be a force, given they also have an elite defense. — Doug Kezirian

With future Hall of Fame quarterback Aaron Rodgers under center, the New York Jets are sure to be Super Bowl contenders, right? Well, maybe.

A defense that ranked fourth in both points and yards allowed last season will again be dominant, and Rodgers can’t be any worse than Zach Wilson was in 2022 (72.8 passer rating). However, there’s no guarantee that he’ll be drastically better.

Rodgers was just OK with the Packers last year, finishing with a 91.1 passer rating. He’ll have familiar faces in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett and receivers Randall Cobb and Allen Lazard, but he’s still joining a brand-new team and playing with a mostly unfamiliar roster.

And, once again, Rodgers only seems somewhat committed to working in the offseason.

The 39-year-old recently told the Pat McAfee Show that he’ll be at “more than half” of the Jets’ offseason workouts (h/t Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk).

The Jets will be playoff contenders, but it’s hard to envision them vying for the AFC’s top seed. There will be a war of attrition in the AFC East, and New York faces the sixth-toughest schedule in the NFL. Getting to the postseason and earning a victory should be seen as a win this season.

Fans will get plenty of opportunities to see the new-look Jets, who will have six nationally televised games this season.

The Jets have the hardest four-game stretch to start the season, per my math:

They also have the hardest first six games of any team, with a trip to Denver in Week 5 followed by a home game against Philadelphia in Week 6. One of the biggest question areas for New York is the health of its O-line — especially considering most of the teams the Jets face early on seem to specialize in defensive pressure. And let’s not overlook that it typically takes a beat for a new QB — even one of Aaron Rodgers‘ elite level — to establish a rhythm and chemistry with a (mostly) different set of pass catchers.

The Jets are getting a rare treatment for them, being given the full allotment of prime-time games. With Aaron Rodgers under center, New York has suddenly become one of the league’s marquee teams, and the schedule showcases that. The Jets also get to participate in the first Black Friday contest, hosting the Dolphins in Week 12.

As is the case with every AFC East team, the road is challenging. The Jets will face the AFC East and AFC West divisions, along with the NFC East, which sent three teams to the playoffs last year. However, New York will benefit from a last-place schedule.

The New York Jets may have all the pieces in place, including quarterback Aaron Rodgers, but it’s an absolutely brutal year for their division. Josh Allen is going to push them in Buffalo. Tyreek Hill and company are going to push the Jets when they travel to Miami. And of course, Bill Belichick has a way of beating New York. But Rodgers will keep them in legitimate contention in 2023. They will win the games they’re supposed to win, which is more than you can usually say for the Jets.

All eyes will be on Aaron Rodgers’ first season with the New York Jets, and for good reason. The Jets’ defense was fantastic throughout 2022, but the team still sputtered with a six-game losing streak to end the year because the offense was so inept. Rodgers, even if he’s a mediocre version of himself, will be a massive upgrade.

A favorable road schedule can help push the Jets into the AFC East title discussion. Road games against the Cowboys and Browns stand out, but the Jets should be able to hold their own in every contest this season. Their three swing games are against the Chiefs, Chargers, and Eagles at home.

The Jets could blow this out of the water a la the 2020 Bucs and 2021 Rams (and not a la the 2022 Broncos) if Aaron Rodgers‘ transition to the Big Apple is seamless. The schedule is brutal out of the gate — if the Jets are above .500 after six weeks they’re going to be a big problem.