There will certainly be a different vibe permeating St. John Fisher University this week when the Buffalo Bills open training camp compared to last year.
When the Bills ended their two-year, Covid-induced hiatus from Pittsford last July, they did so still smarting from their latest nicknamed loss, the 13 seconds debacle to the Kansas City Chiefs. But also, there was an air of excitement surrounding Sean McDermott’s team because dispute that horrendous outcome, the Bills were in many circles considered the favorite to win Super Bowl 57.
Well, that sure didn’t happen thanks to an ugly 27-10 home playoff loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, a crash landing that has some wondering whether the Bills’ Super Bowl window – wide open a year ago – is already starting to close.
The AFC East has improved top to bottom, particularly the Dolphins who gave Buffalo three titanic struggles last year and are better this season, and of course the Aaron Rodgers-led Jets. The Patriots might be the last-place team, but they could be tougher than they were in 2022, so the three-time defending champion Bills might struggle just to win the division.
“To be honest, I don’t know what people are saying about us,” quarterback Josh Allen claimed back in mini camp. “We’re very internally motivated here in our organization, and it starts with coach McDermott. We’ve got high expectations, but no one’s expectations will be higher than ours.”
Here’s my annual pre-training camp positional breakdown of the team as it returns to Fisher, including which 53 players I think will be on the Opening Day roster:
Quarterback
Starter: Josh Allen.
Reserves: Kyle Allen, Matt Barkley.
▶ Sal’s take: Pretty simple here. Kyle Allen will be the backup and with the NFL instituting the new third QB rule, Barkley will now wear a uniform on game day. The third QB will be the 47th man, and he can only play if the starter and backup get hurt.
▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: J. Allen, K. Allen, Barkley (third QB).
Running back
Starter: James Cook.
Reserves: Damien Harris, Latavius Murray, Nyheim Hines, Reggie Gilliam (FB), Jordan Mims.
▶ Sal’s take: Cook shared time with Devin Singletary last year as a rookie, and I would suspect he’s going to do the same this year with Harris. He doesn’t seem built to be a full-time bulk snap count player, but he should get the higher percentage, especially if the Bills can figure out a way to get him involved in the passing game. Harris looks like the main backup with Hines perhaps earning a role as a pass catcher, but I think he’s going to be used primarily as the punt and kick returner. As for Murray, I’m going back and forth between keeping him or cutting him and adding him to the practice squad. In the past, the fourth RB has been Taiwan Jones who played only special teams, and Murray won’t do that. Gilliam should continue in his small role as the only fullback on the roster.
▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Cook, Harris, Hines, Gilliam.
Wide receiver
Starters: Stefon Diggs, Gabriel Davis, Deonte Harty.
Reserves: Khalil Shakir, Trent Sherfield, Justin Shorter, Isaiah Coulter, Tyrell Shavers, Marcell Ateman, Dezmon Patmon, Bryan Thompson, Jalen Wayne, KeeSean Johnson.
▶ Sal’s take: Assuming Diggs has his head on straight, he remains one of the best players in the NFL and will once again be a 100-plus target man in this offense. Davis heads into the final year of his contract and that’s always an incentive for players to perform, so I think he’ll be in for a bounce back season. The place to watch is the slot. If the Bills don’t believe rookie Dalton Kincaid is ready, I think Harty will start there and probably share time with Shakir. Sherfield feels like a special teams guy, and Shorter will be a weekly inactive.
▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Diggs, Davis, Harty, Shakir, Sherfield, Shorter.
Tight end
Starter: Dawson Knox.
Reserves: Dalton Kincaid, Quintin Morris, Joel Wilson, Nick Guggemos.
▶ Sal’s take: Knox is the No. 1 traditional tight end, meaning attached to the line, though he will occasionally be in the slot. The Bills are hoping Kincaid can become their primary slot receiver, but I don’t think that will happen right away. If and when it does, I can see the Bills having both tight ends on the field for the majority of snaps, joining two wide receivers. Morris has the best shot to stick as the third tight end because he can contribute on special teams.
▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Knox, Kincaid, Morris.
Interior offensive line
Starters: Mitch Morse (C), Connor McGovern (LG), Ryan Bates (RG).
Reserves: David Edwards (G), O’Cyrus Torrence (G), Ike Boettger (G), Nick Broeker (G), Greg Mancz (G-C), Kevin Jarvis (G).
▶ Sal’s take: McGovern was the Bills’ most expensive free agent signing so he needs to solidify the LG position that has been pretty weak the past few years. At RG, Torrence was drafted to be the starter, but he will have to win that role and I think early on, Bates will probably hold him off. Morse is locked in, but he suffered another concussion last year so the Bills need to be nimble at the position. Bates and Mancz can both play center, but ultimately, I think Mancz ends up on the practice squad.
▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Morse, McGovern, Bates, Torrence.
Offensive tackle
Starters: Dion Dawkins (LT), Spencer Brown (RT).
Reserves: Tommy Doyle, David Quessenberry, Brandon Shell, Alec Anderson, Ryan Van Demark, Richard Gouriage.
▶ Sal’s take: This is a big year for Brown. The 2021 third-round pick is fully healthy after a difficult 2022 season and he has to become a reliable player in both the run and pass, something he has yet to do. If he falters, Shell has 72 career NFL starts and should be ready to take over. Doyle is coming off knee surgery and there’s a chance he won’t be ready for the start of the season, meaning a stint on PUP, but for now I have him on my 53. If he’s not ready, I’d say Quessenberry gets the spot.
▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Dawkins, Brown, Doyle, Shell, Doyle (PUP).
Defensive tackle
Starters: Ed Oliver, DaQuan Jones.
Reserves: Tim Settle, Poona Ford, Jordan Phillips, Eli Ankou, Kendal Vickers, Cortez Broughton, DJ Dale.
▶ Sal’s take: Oliver has a new contract and now the question is this: After not playing up to his draft status in his first four seasons, can he now play up to his new contract? Jones had a very nice first season in Buffalo and he’ll continue to be a solid run defender. Settle was a disappointment as a free agent last year but he’s still young and has potential, while Ford is a very interesting free agent who should upgrade the rotation. Phillips is another candidate to start the season on PUP, but I’ll include him here.
▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Oliver, Jones, Ford, Settle, Phillips.
Edge rusher
Starters: Leonard Floyd, Greg Rousseau.
Reserves: Von Miller, A.J. Epenesa, Boogie Basham, Shaq Lawson, Kingsley Jonathan, Shane Ray, Kameron Kline.
▶ Sal’s take: Miller will probably start the year on the PUP and won’t available for the first four games, so I’m not including him in my initial 53-man roster. When he’s back, someone on the team – not necessarily an edge rusher – has to get lopped off. Rousseau has been a solid player, but the Bills need more from their 2021 first-round pick. Epenesa and Basham have been disappointing second-round picks, there’s no way around that. Lawson was re-signed as a free agent because the Bills love his motor and his ability to play the run.
▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Floyd, Rousseau, Epenesa, Lawson, Basham, Miller (PUP).
Linebacker
Starters: Matt Milano, Tyrel Dodson.
Reserves: Terrel Bernard, Dorian Williams, A.J. Klein, Baylon Spector, Travin Howard, Tyler Matakevich.
▶ Sal’s take: Replacing Tremaine Edmunds is the biggest question the Bills face heading into camp. For now, I’m saying Dodson is the frontrunner, but that could certainly change. My guess is that the coaches hope Bernard, who was a third-round pick in 2022, emerges as the winner, but his lack of size is a concern to me. Klein has proven he can do it, but I think the Bills would prefer he remain in a backup role. Milano is an All-Pro, one of the most reliable players on the team, and Williams is an interesting 2023 third-round pick who will need plenty of seasoning. Matakevich was re-signed solely for special teams.
▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Milano, Dodson, Bernard, Williams, Klein, Matakevich.
Cornerback
Starters: Tre’Davious White, Kaiir Elam, Taron Johnson (NCB).
Reserves: Dane Jackson, Christian Benford, JaMarcus Ingram, Cameron Dantzler, Cam Lewis, Siran Neal, Alex Austin.
▶ Sal’s take: Another big battle will take place opposite White. Elam, Jackson and Benford will all get equal opportunity to win the starting spot and it’s way too close to call right now. I have Elam penciled in, the emphasis on erasable pencil. However, I do think all three will make the roster regardless of who wins. Johnson is back in the nickel spot but needs to play a little better than he did in 2022, while Neal will be a special teams only option.
▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: White, Elam, Jackson, T. Johnson, Neal, Benford.
Safety
Starters: Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer.
Reserves: Taylor Rapp, Damar Hamlin, Dean Marlowe, Zayne Anderson, Jared Mayden.
▶ Sal’s take: Rapp is a very intriguing chess piece for McDermott. Obviously, he’s an ideal replacement if either Hyde or Poyer get hurt and at their respective ages, dealing with what they did last year, that’s something to keep an eye on. But I also think Rapp could see time as a sixth defensive back, deployed in Edmunds’ former role, someone who can cover but also blitz on passing downs. Hamlin appears to be fully healthy and has the best chance to fill a backup role, but don’t sleep on Marlowe or Anderson who could be in play because of their special teams ability, particularly Anderson.
▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Hyde, Poyer, Rapp, Hamlin.
Special teams
Starters: Tyler Bass (K), Sam Martin (P), Reid Ferguson (LS).
▶ Sal’s take: It doesn’t get less complicated than this. Bass, Martin and Ferguson will compete unopposed for their jobs and barring injury, all three will be on the team come Sept. 11 in New York.
▶ Sal’s picks for the 53: Bass, Martin, Ferguson.
Questions to be answered during Buffalo Bills training camp 2023
Be sure to return to democratandchronicle.com for daily updates throughout the Buffalo Bills training camp. You can also sign up for Bills Blast, Sal Maiorana’s newsletter which will follow the Bills action all season long. Here are stories previewing some of the other questions that need to be answered during camp:
Sal Maiorana can be reached at maiorana@gannett.com. Follow him on Twitter @salmaiorana and on Threads @salmaiorana1.
This article originally appeared on Rochester Democrat and Chronicle: Buffalo Bills training camp: 53-man roster projection
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