What NFL analytics staffers say about OT possession advantages: Better to have the ball first or second?


Which is more advantageous in overtime possessions: Having the ball first or second? Insights from NFL analytics staffers

Ben Solak and Seth Walder are ESPN analysts who provide expert analysis on NFL games. In a recent article, they discussed the strategic implications of the new regular-season overtime rules for the 2025 NFL season. Teams are now faced with the decision of whether to choose to have the ball first or second in overtime, a choice that can have significant implications on the game’s outcome. The decision is complex and depends on various factors such as offensive and defensive strength, weather conditions, and the value of a tie. ESPN’s model suggests that teams should lean towards taking the first possession, but matchup factors could make the second possession feasible in some cases. Ultimately, the optimal decision may vary depending on the specific circumstances of each game.

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