In the modern NFL, quarterbacks taken in the first round of the draft are generally expected to be one thing: an immediate franchise savior.
This year, three QB’s were taken in the first five picks of the first round.
Bryce Young went first overall to the Carolina Panthers, while the Houston Texans selected C.J. Stroud at No. 2 and the Colts picked Anthony Richardson at No. 4. As is becoming more and more popular in the NFL, all three are expected to start Week 1 of their rookie season per ESPN’s Adam Schefter.
Good.
Most teams in a position to bring in a top tier quarterback via the draft are there in some part because of poor quarterback play. Whether through injury, poor prospect development or poor veteran signings, most teams who find themselves in the shoes of the Panthers, Texans and Colts are somewhat devoid of talent at quarterback.
Since the Panthers drafted Cam Newton with the top pick in 2011, a quarterback has been first off the board nine times after the 2023 selection of Young. Each became their team’s starting quarterback in their rookie year.
This is because the general argument for sitting a top prospect is for him to learn from a quality veteran like Brett Favre for Aaron Rodgers or Alex Smith for Patrick Mahomes, neither of whom were taken near the top of the first round. Teams with this luxury are rarely in a position to select and develop the top college prospects.
Young’s mentor in Carolina is Andy Dalton, who has had a long career as both a starter and backup in the NFL, but likely has little to offer on the field for Young to model.
The same sentiment rings true for Stroud with Davis Mills in Houston and Anthony Richardson with Gardner Minshew in Indianapolis. Both are quarterbacks with starting experience, but neither have the league resume or tenure of Dalton.
Finally, one of the most important factors for an efficient offense is chemistry and timing.
A quarterback needs to develop a relationship with his offensive line and rhythm with his running backs and receivers, but also needs to adjust to the jump in speed and violence from college to professional football.
For proof, just look at the results from the first-rounders preseason debuts.
Per CBS Sports, the trio combined to go 15-22 for 101 yards and two ugly interceptions on eight series between the three.
Reps are especially important for Richardson.
He started just a single season at Florida compared to the two seasons of experience for Young and Stroud, and was easily the least consistent with his accuracy week to week.
Mistakes will be made and things could look ugly at times, and while teams are ultimately judged by their records, wins and losses won’t be the most important metric for Indy, Houston or Carolina this year. It will be how much their franchise savior can develop and improve.
The best way to do that is to play.
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