2023 NFL Over/Under win totals: Projected wins for each team, predictions

Hope springs eternal during the summer for optimistic NFL bettors. But it can also pay off for pessimistic wagerers, as well.

Welcome to the unpredictable world of betting on NFL regular-season win total futures bets.

Last season, Over win total bettors loved the Philadelphia Eagles. Indianapolis Colts? Not so much.

Now, sportsbooks have dropped win total numbers for every team in the league. So let’s dive into the fun and take a look at the regular-season win totals for the upcoming NFL season, with picks from Geoff Schwartz.

NFL OVER/UNDER WIN TOTALS* (2022 wins in parentheses)

Cincinnati Bengals: O/U 11.5 wins (12)
Kansas City Chiefs: O/U 11.5 wins (14)
Philadelphia Eagles: O/U 11.5 wins (14)
Baltimore Ravens: O/U 10.5 wins (10)
Buffalo Bills: O/U 10.5 wins (13)
San Francisco 49ers: O/U 10.5 wins (13) 
Cleveland Browns: O/U 9.5 wins (7)
Dallas Cowboys: O/U 9.5 wins (12)
Detroit Lions: O/U 9.5 wins (9)
Jacksonville Jaguars: O/U 9.5 wins (9)
Los Angeles Chargers: O/U 9.5 wins (10)
Miami Dolphins: O/U 9.5 wins (9)
New Orleans Saints: O/U 9.5 wins (7)
New York Jets: O/U 9.5 wins (7)
Atlanta Falcons: O/U 8.5 wins (7)
Denver Broncos: O/U 8.5 wins (5)
Minnesota Vikings: O/U 8.5 wins (13)
New England Patriots: O/U 7.5 wins (8)
New York Giants: O/U 7.5 wins (9)
Pittsburgh Steelers: O/U 8.5 wins (9) 
Seattle Seahawks: O/U 8.5 wins (9)
Carolina Panthers: O/U 7.5 wins (7)
Chicago Bears: O/U 7.5 wins (3)
Green Bay Packers: O/U 7.5 wins (8)
Tennessee Titans: O/U 7.5 wins (7)
Houston Texans: O/U 6.5 wins (3)
Indianapolis Colts: O/U 6.5 wins (4)
Las Vegas Raiders: O/U 6.5 wins (6)
Los Angeles Rams: O/U 6.5 wins (5) 
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: O/U 6.5 wins (8)
Washington Commanders: O/U 6.5 wins (8)
Arizona Cardinals: O/U 4.5 wins (4)

*odds as of 8/7/2023

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Jalen Hurts and the Eagles were an easy Over winner last season. Philadelphia, projected at 9.5 regular-season wins, finished 14-3.

Other easy Over winners were the Minnesota Vikings (O/U 9, finished 13-4), the Seattle Seahawks (O/U 5.5, 9-8), the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars (both 6.5, 9-8).

The Colts paid off for bettors who played Under 10 wins. Indianapolis finished 4-12-1.

Other teams who easily cashed in for Under bettors were the Los Angeles Rams (O/U 10.5, finished 5-12), the Denver Broncos (O/U 10, 5-12) and the Arizona Cardinals (O/U 8.5, 4-13).

Picks via FOX Sports NFL Analyst Geoff Schwartz:

Jacksonville Jaguars Over 9.5 

The Jaguars over their win total is my favorite win total wager heading into the 2023 season. 

Jacksonville won nine games last season in quarterback Trevor Lawrence’s first year being paired with Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson. We see quarterbacks (and their teams) often make a huge jump in Year 2. Yes, Lawrence is heading into his third NFL season, but we need to toss his rookie year because of his poor coaching situation. The Jaguars have an improved roster, adding players like Calvin Ridley and Anton Harrison to the offense will help Lawrence skyrocket into the conversation as a Tier 1 QB. 

Maybe more important to this discussion is the Jaguars’ schedule. Instead of looking at the traditional win percentage of their future opponents, we should always look at the quarterbacks they are facing. The Jags face tough tests against Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow and Lamar Jackson. Three of these games are at home, with the game against Buffalo being played in England. Duval also goes to New Orleans to face Derek Carr and a December game at Cleveland. Otherwise, the bulk of the schedule is full of Desmond Ridder, Bryce Young, Baker Mayfield and whoever is playing quarterback for the rest of the division opponents. 

The Jaguars are going to win 11 games, so I’ll gladly take the Over 9.5 

PICK: Jacksonville Jaguars to win Over 9.5 games

Tampa Bay Buccaneers Under 6.5 

Have you seen the quarterbacks the Bucs are planning to roll out? Baker Mayfield and/or Kyle Trask are the two primary options for Tampa Bay. Mayfield is 8-16 in his last 24 starts dating back to the start of the 2021 season. He has not thrown for over 250 yards since November 2021 and has generally been a turnover machine. Baker has nearly as many interceptions as touchdowns during that time. 

The Bucs’ offensive line is going through some shuffling, plus they couldn’t run the ball very well last season. Their offensive design is outdated and having bad quarterbacks isn’t going to help. If they can stay healthy, the defense can be good, but that’s not enough to carry the team to seven wins.  

There’s also the question of motivation. They need a franchise quarterback and the 2024 NFL Draft will be full of them. Landing a Caleb Williams or Drake Maye would secure the future of their franchise. That’s more important than winning a few extra games this season.  

PICK: Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win Under 6.5 games

So which team catches your eye for an O/U win total wager? Follow FOX Sports for the latest NFL news. 

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