Early 2023 Week 1 odds and picks, Pete Prisco regrades 2020 NFL Draft and Vikings tease Dalvin Cook exit

Howdy, everyone, and happy Wednesday. The Bengals are still working on a Joe Burrow extension (more on that below), so John Breech has presumably taken the day to advocate for that deal in the Cincinnati area. In the meantime, you’ve got me, Cody Benjamin, to deliver all the latest from around the NFL.

This is the Pick Six Newsletter. Now let’s get to it. (And please, do yourself a favor and make sure you’re signed up to receive this newsletter every day! You don’t want to miss our daily offerings of everything you need to know around the NFL.)

We’ve got early Week 1 odds and predictions, a full Patriots forecast and much more:

1. Today’s show: One question, possible move for each NFC team

Ryan Wilson, John Breech and Katie Mox joined Will Brinson on the latest “Pick Six NFL Podcast” to break down remaining questions — and propose potential moves — for each and every NFC team ahead of the 2023 NFL season. Some highlights:

• While Breech believes Bryce Young will have plenty of leeway as the Panthers’ new quarterback, but he’s not so sure Packers fans will be patient with Jordan Love: “There’s no guarantee this offense is going to be any good” with a younger receiving corps.
• While some have still speculated about the future under center in Detroit, Brinson is a believer in Jared Goff’s Lions revival, suggesting he’s the third-best QB in the NFC going into the 2023 season.
• QB drama aside, Mox thinks the 49ers’ offensive line is a legit question, especially at right tackle, where the team will be starting a new full-timer for the first time in more than a half-decade following Mike McGlinchey’s exit in free agency.

Check out the entire episode (and subscribe for all kinds of daily NFL talk) right here.

2. Early Week 1 odds, picks: Bills spoil Aaron Rodgers’ Jets debut

We’re still a ways out from the start of the 2023 season, but that doesn’t mean it’s too early to forecast the opening slate of action. Jordan Dajani has taken stock of all the odds and provided a spring forecast of every Week 1 game. Some notable calls:

• Chiefs 31, Lions 23: The Lions went from having zero prime-time games in 2022 to kicking off the season against the reigning Super Bowl champions. I am just as intrigued by the Lions as everyone else. I even think they are the new “America’s Team.” But I’m also wary of giving this squad their flowers too early.
• Bills 24, Jets 21: I may be more bullish on Aaron Rodgers and the Jets in 2023 than anyone. But it’s no guarantee they get off to a hot start with their new quarterback. Rodgers has won a whopping nine straight starts on “Monday Night Football,” but has lost his last two Week 1 starts by a combined score of 61-10! He hasn’t thrown a touchdown in his last two season openers. Even with this game being in New York, give me the Bills to win.
• Bengals 27, Browns 23: I’m expecting the Browns to be better with Deshaun Watson in 2023, but they still have a lot to prove as contenders. Maybe this line has to do with the fact that Joe Burrow is 1-4 vs. the Browns, and has never won in Cleveland. However, he has a new left tackle in Orlando Brown Jr., and his young wide receivers are just getting better.

3. Burrow says he and Bengals are ‘on the road’ to new contract

Joe Burrow saw fellow AFC North quarterback Lamar Jackson cash in big this offseason. And while he doesn’t yet have his own long-term contract, the star signal-caller sounds confident an extension is on the way. Here’s some of his latest remarks on the subject:

“I’m involved. It’s in the works. It’s not really something I like to play out in the media. That’s just the way I think they want to do business, [how] I want to do business. We prefer to keep that between us. … [But] I think there’s a lot of different ways it can work out. … I’m pretty clear on what I want in the contract and what I think is best for myself and the team. We’re on the road to making that happen.”

It’s a safe bet that if/when Burrow and the Bengals strike a new deal, the QB will reset the market with an average annual value of at least $52 million, the total that Jackson netted from the Ravens.

4. Patriots game-by-game predictions: New England set to struggle

The Patriots have been busy this offseason, welcoming back Bill O’Brien to run an offense beset by injuries and shoddy scheming in 2022, while shuffling the pieces around QB Mac Jones. But are they actually any better prepared to make noise in the AFC East, where the Bills remain an elite contender, the Jets now have Aaron Rodgers and the Dolphins are seemingly on the rise?

Resident Patriots expert Tyler Sullivan has done the heavy lifting to find out, assessing each and every game on New England’s 2023 schedule to predict the team’s final record. Here’s a look at some key game picks, as well as his final forecast:

Key games:

• Week 1 — Eagles 27, Patriots 24: Historically, the Super Bowl runner-up has struggled in this spot. With the home-field advantage and Tom Brady in the stands, the Patriots hang tough and keep it close, but Philly is still too good to be upset.
• Week 3 — Jets 28, Patriots 20: New England gets its first glimpse of Aaron Rodgers with the Jets, and the four-time league MVP comes out of the gate hot with his new team. Rodgers and the Jets use this game as a statement to decree that they are no longer the bottom-dwellers of the division. New York gets a rare win over Bill Belichick, who drops to 0-3 on the year.
• Week 17 — Bills 31, Patriots 21: I expect the AFC to be very tight at the top from wire to wire, which means teams like the Bills will be playing out the final few weeks to try and secure the No. 1 seed. Buffalo is simply the more talented team with an MVP-caliber quarterback.

Final record prediction: 8-9

5. Vikings tease Dalvin Cook exit: Potential landing spots

All offseason, Minnesota has admitted that star running back Dalvin Cook may not be around for the 2023 season, with Cook among the NFL’s most expensive players at an increasingly devalued position. Now, however, the Vikings are all but teasing his exit, replacing the fan favorite on the team’s official Twitter banner with a photo of backup Alexander Mattison. So where, exactly, could Cook end up this season? Bryan DeArdo has pinpointed these teams as logical landing spots:

• Cowboys: Everyone knows that Jerry Jones loves to make splashy moves, and acquiring Cook would certainly be one. Headlines aside, the move does make sense from a personnel standpoint. The Cowboys could benefit from having a player of Cook’s caliber to play alongside Tony Pollard. Cook would also offer insurance in the event that Pollard leaves after 2023. 
• Bears: Cook would fit like a glove inside the Bears’ offense. He’d get a chance to run behind a revamped line that includes rookie first-round pick Darnell Wright, and he’d be an upgrade over the Bears’ current group of backs that includes D’Onta Foreman, Khalil Herbert and rookie Roschon Johnson. 
• Cardinals: Arizona has the cap space to acquire Cook. They also have a need at running back behind James Conner, who given his injury history would benefit by having a back of Cook’s caliber to share a backfield with.

6. Rapid-fire roundup: Adams iffy on Raiders, regrading 2020 draft, more

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