2023 NFL odds: Three early bets to make after the NFL Draft

With the dust settled from the latest NFL Draft, American sportsbooks are starting to post all sorts of betting markets for the coming season.

I’m not the type of person that pops 15 to 20 bets into the queue four months before the season kicks off, but there are always opportunities to get ahead of the curve on certain players and teams.

You ready?

Here are three NFL bets I would make right now.

Jaguars Over 9.5 wins: -134 (bet $10 to win $17.46 total)

Get on this one now.

The market has already started to tick upward, with multiple sportsbooks dealing O/U 10.5 wins, and the Jacksonville hype train should pick up even more steam throughout the summer.

Quarterback Trevor Lawrence is morphing into a star and his growth from Year 1 to Year 2 was downright impressive. Lawrence threw 12 touchdowns and 17 interceptions as a rookie — numbers that left a lot to be desired — but followed it up with 25 and 8 as a second-year slinger.

If he takes another step, look out.

Jacksonville finished as a Top-10 team in Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White’s NFL power ratings last season and odds are good they’ll be just as good in 2023. You also must consider the AFC South will likely start two rookies at quarterback, so the Jags should be favored in five of six divisional games.

Give me the “Over.”

PICK: Jaguars (-134) Over 9.5 wins

Bears Over 7.5 wins: -118 (bet $10 to win $18.47 total)

Betting “Under” 6.5 on Chicago was free money last year.  

The Bears sputtered to a 3-14 record, mostly because quarterback Justin Fields didn’t have great playmakers or protection. Chicago finished with the NFL’s worst passing attack [153 yards per game] and building a better supporting cast around Fields was clearly a priority.

General manager Ryan Poles dealt out of No. 1 overall to acquire a No. 1 wide receiver in D.J. Moore then drafted offensive tackle Darnell Wright out of Tennessee at No. 10 to help solidify Fields’ pocket. A Moore-Chase, Claypool-Darnell Mooney receiver room ain’t too shabby, plus rookie wideout Tyler Scott projects to be a solid deep threat down the field.

Chicago will obviously benefit from Aaron Rodgers’ NFC North departure, and it’s almost impossible to expect Minnesota to be anywhere near as lucky — er, successful — as it was last year with a 13-4 finish. I’m also fascinated to see how Detroit [+130 North favorites] performs with actual expectations.

Let’s pump the brakes on the Bears winning a division title, but it’s eye-opening to see their front office attack weaknesses and build in the trenches. This team suddenly has good bones and eight wins is very doable.

PICK: Bears (-118) over 7.5 wins

Quentin Johnston most rookie receiving yards: +500 (bet $10 to win $60 total)

Minnesota’s Jordan Addison and Seattle’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba have shorter odds than Johnston, but the former TCU wideout finds himself in a great situation with the pass-happy L.A. Chargers.

Justin Herbert threw the ball 699 times last year.

699.

That’s 54 more times than Kirk Cousins hurled it and 127 more than Geno Smith did. And you would think playing inside a division with the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders would lead to the Bolts playing in plenty more shootouts this year.

There’s no reason to think Johnston won’t start Day 1 and earn around 100 targets in his rookie season. He’s a big ol’ target [6’3″, 215] for Herbert, and he’ll enjoy all the freedoms of playing in the same offense with Mike Williams and Keenan Allen.

Feed the former frog. 

PICK: Quentin Johnston (+500) most rookie receiving yards

Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and NESN. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. He’ll probably pick against your favorite team. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.

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